Railcar Market: Fleet Shrinks as Demand Rises (2026 Outlook)

The North American railcar market faces growing uncertainty, with fleets shrinking despite healthy carload volumes. Eric Marchetto, EVP & CFO of

What happened

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Why it matters

The North American railcar fleet is contracting at a time when freight demand is strengthening, a combination that Eric Marchetto, executive vice president and CFO of Trinity Industries, says could soon force shippers and lessors into new builds at elevated prices. Association of American Railroads data released this week showed total North American carloads up 1.6% in week 39 year over year, while intermodal volume surged 6.9%, lifting combined traffic 4.4% above the same week in 2024.

Marchetto, who has been at Trinity since 1995, said the industry is on pace to build roughly 25,000 railcars this year while scrapping more than 35,000, leaving the fleet in a net deficit. “We see cars in storage coming out, but we really haven’t seen anybody change their fleet planning yet,” he said, noting that slower train speeds and longer dwell times compound the tightening. The intermodal car segment is already at a six- to seven-year low in storage levels, adding further strain.

Tariff uncertainty is the primary reason fleet decisions have stalled. Marchetto noted that tariff policies have changed, on average, every week in some form, making capital expenditure planning nearly impossible for industrial shippers. “When you say it could be X, or it could be X plus ten, or it could be X plus twenty-five, and we don’t know, then people tend to wait,” he said. He added that waiting is unlikely to improve economics, as steel costs, interest rates, and lease rates are all trending higher heading into 2026.

This news brief is based on reporting published by FreightWaves on 2026-10-07. The original report is linked below.